2026-27 Winter weather outlook

A drier, warmer winter is on tap for the Midwest, thanks to the strongest El Niño ever recorded. In raw data, Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperatures along the equator are forecast to eclipse the previous record of 2.8 C (37.04 F) above normal, reaching near or just below 4 degrees Celsius (39.3 F) above normal.

El Niño brings warmer-than-normal weather across the United States, especially across the North. The jet stream pushes a southern storm track from California to the Carolinas and up the East Coast, keeping that region fairly wet. Farther north, conditions can be drier, though it is harder to predict whether less frequent storms will arrive as rain or snow.

“Our DTN seasonal forecast for December through March 2027 — based solely on a superstrong El Niño — calls for extremely above-normal temperatures across the entire northern half of the U.S.,” said John Baranick, DTN meteorologist. “There will usually be some breakup in this pattern with big blasts of cold, but the warmth just overwhelms all those cold shots.”

Drought reduction

Consistent, heavy rainfall from August into early September helped erase some seasonal drought from northeast Kansas through Pennsylvania.

“A lot of Corn Belt dryness has gone away, aside from the Dakotas and Nebraska westward,” Baranick said. “The Red River Valley is not in good shape, nor are the North Dakota border and the North Woods areas of Minnesota and Wisconsin. It remains hard to predict whether winter rain and snow will help alleviate these areas by spring.”

If winter turns out unusually warm with less snowfall and variable precipitation in the Corn Belt, Baranick said there is potential for a drier Ohio Valley next spring.

It is too early to predict many details about the decline of El Niño and the potential for La Niña to develop next year. “However, when we get a strong El Niño, it is historically always followed by two years of La Niña. So, mark it down now: The winter of 2027-28 and the winter of 2028-29 will be La Niña,” he said.

Winter wheat should fare well in these conditions, especially from Kansas to Texas, because this weather pattern helps build soil moisture. But Corn Belt winter crops could face dryness issues in Missouri, Illinois and Indiana by spring.

Other potential issues from a warmer, drier Corn Belt winter include reduced snowmelt to recharge soils in spring and a greater risk of pests or diseases. On the other hand, reduced frost depth could allow rainfall during warmer weather to replenish soils.

Southern hemisphere summer

In South America from January 2027 through March 2027, Baranick sees a favorable El Niño weather pattern for Argentina and southern Brazil, with more frequent rainfall and limited extreme heat.

“But in central Brazil, things get wonky, leading to drier conditions on the edges of the Amazon rainforest. As we look at the most important cropping — Mato Grosso — forecasts are calling for not only lower precipitation amounts, but also less frequent rain,” Baranick said.

If central Brazil receives typical El Niño heat stress on top of drought stress from less frequent rain at the wrong time for soybeans, it could significantly affect yield and the subsequent corn crop. And crop production in central Brazil far outweighs that of Argentina and southern Brazil.

With El Niño peaking during the southern hemisphere’s growing season, Baranick said this weather pattern could impact the market. “With such a strong El Niño, we don’t see much reason for our long-range forecast to change over the next six months,” he added.