The science and strategy of increased yields—no matter where you farm, no matter what you grow

Rentsche attributes his first yield bump, in the late ’90s, to genetically modified seed. “We found that when we switched to glyphosate-tolerant soybeans, it had a profound effect on our corn yields,” he says. “It turned out the chemicals we’d been using on our beans were holding back our corn.” Today, as gene-editing technology tailors species’ tolerance and resilience traits to specific growing environments, Rentsche expects high-yield potential from every seed he sows.

Improved seed—through hybridization or genetic modification—has for decades been the principal driver of yield gains worldwide; today’s hybrids produce more bushels per inch of water and pound of nitrogen than at any time in history. Through relentless crossing of high-yielding parents, seed breeders continue to maximize the efficiency with which plants capture and convert solar energy into starch, protein, and oil while minimizing threats—drought, disease, pests—to their survival.

By crossbreeding at scale, seed breeders have also accelerated the rate at which superstars emerge, isolating those with performance characteristics that warrant commercialization in any given year. Moreover, by experimenting with germplasm from seed banks established a century ago, breeders continue to expand the range of high-potential parents.

The impact of their efforts on the global food supply cannot be overstated. Between 1965 and 2010, the adoption of high-yielding varieties in 90 countries increased food crop yields by 44 percent; a 2021 study shows that, had this adoption not occurred, GDP per capita in the developing world would be half of what it is today. And the payoff from innovative science continues. For example, a new rice variant bred to withstand high levels of salt and alkali is already exceeding yield expectations in South China. In sub-Saharan Africa, maize hybridized to thrive in drought-prone or water-limited areas has boosted yields by 39 percent. In the central highlands of Mexico, maize hybridized to mature early and resist ear rot and rust has doubled yields.

Better soils, better yields

Farmers have long recognized the impact of soil health on yields. What’s changed in recent years is how farmers maintain and nurture soils. Research affirms that continuous coverage—through no-till cultivation, intercropping, and cover cropping—is the best way to promote soil health. Field stover and cover crops protect soil from moisture loss as well as wind and water erosion; they lock in organic matter along with the microorganisms that make nutrients available to plants and they preserve soil structure, ensuring that water and air can circulate and roots can grow unrestricted.

Depending on the species selected, cover crops can also restore nitrogen leached by previous crops, augmenting subsequent crops’ yield potential while minimizing future input costs. Increasingly, cover crops are sown as a second cash crop—a practice, known as “double-cropping,” which benefits the farmer as well as the soil. By extending every cultivated acre’s seasonal production capacity, double-cropping is one intensification practice that’s boosting yields worldwide. Other forms of intensification include spacing crop rows more narrowly—using seed bred for high-density planting—and intercropping, wherein one species is planted among or between the rows of another.

A corollary finding of this research is that not every farm acre should be enlisted for food production. Soils that require intensive inputs to realize the yield potential of hybrids and genetically engineered seeds may not be worth farming, as the costs of remediation could exceed harvest revenues. The greatest yields—and profits—are achieved by selecting arable land and specializing in the crops proven to thrive in local soils and climates, as this maximizes resource efficiencies and concentrates management efforts.

More data, greater precision

Improved soil health unlocks the genetic potential of high-yielding varieties, but it is ably assisted by precision agriculture—the crop-system efficiencies enabled by digital tools and the data they generate—in sustaining the upward trajectory of the yield curve. Rentsche attributes the ongoing profitability of his operation to the yield monitor he first affixed to his combine in 2008. “It taught us to farm better,” he says, citing the bumper-crop effect of more timely and targeted fertilizer applications.

Introduced in the early ’90s, yield monitors furnish farmers with georeferenced data on crop yields and moisture content. Software then converts monitor data into yield maps that reveal over time precisely where—and which kind of—remediation is needed. For Rentsche, 30 years of data affirms the wisdom of targeting interventions to the weakest areas. “I get more yield by bringing the low end up 10 percent,” he says, “than by swinging for the fences on the whole field.”

Data guides Rentsche in every action he takes, helping him realize greater yields while minimizing input costs. He’s prescriptively planting rather than blanketing fields with seed, installing drainage tiles only where needed, applying fertility to just the needier plants, and calibrating nitrogen applications so that they infuse only his grain and not the local or regional watershed.

But digital tools don’t just help farmers achieve greater yields. Most importantly, they provide the insight crucial to profitable decision-making. For example, Rentsche’s biggest gains to date have come from the precision application of a combination fungicide/insecticide. It has improved his yields per acre by 20 bushels by releasing the genetic potential of his seed investment, which produces straighter, sturdier, taller stalks. Since those sturdy stalks extend his harvest window, he’s better able to amortize the annual cost of his equipment. Yet maintaining these gains requires trade-offs. To prevent fungicide resistance, he must rotate either the chemical or the crop it’s used on, as careful stewardship is the key to preserving its economic benefits. “The predictive power these digital tools give me is very useful in analyzing these trade-offs,” he says. “I measure everything, find out what consistently works with the rest of the production system, and put it into practice as prescribed. Data science is my secret sauce.”

No limit in sight

As growers combine breakthroughs in seed tech with ever more precise resource management, yields will climb even higher. Seed breeders are engineering corn, for example, to more efficiently capture and convert solar energy into sugar, by having ears either mature at the top of the canopy or mature when the stalk is short and sunlight more readily penetrates the canopy. Corn that matures and gets harvested earlier in turn allows for a second crop to be sown directly into the stubble of the first, doubling seasonal yields while maintaining soil health and minimizing inputs.

But because innovation is only as beneficial as knowledge of it permits, the most important driver of future yields may just be farmer networks. “I don’t claim to have any superior ability to farm,” says Rentsche. “I credit my success to what I’ve learned from associating with other successful farmers. My number-one strategy is my network of peers.”