2026 Corn Belt summer weather forecast

The expected arrival of El Niño will bring favorable growing conditions for most of the United States.

Given wild temperature swings that brought record-breaking heat in March, the transition from La Niña to a neutral phase could deliver a moderate Corn Belt summer.

“With El Niño arriving this summer, it usually locks us into a favorable pattern for most of the U.S.,” said John Baranick, DTN Ag Meteorologist. “That means less frequent heat waves, milder temperatures, frequent precipitation events and overall good weather.”

Current models show El Niño arriving anywhere from May to July, with potential for a super El Niño by July or August. Baranick said DTN is currently forecasting similarities to the 2023 super El Niño, depending on arrival time and severity.

“The early May into June dryness that had farmers nervous and crops stressed in 2023 was followed by July and August rainfall that predictably saved the season,” Baranick said. “Obviously, a repeat of this won’t happen exactly, although current forecasts for the rest of spring don’t look favorable to alleviate more of the current drought before early summer.”

Drought issues

As of late March, drought areas across the Corn Belt were increasing. As DTN reported in mid-March, corn-area drought increased from 31% to 51%, soybean-area drought climbed from 30% to 53%, and winter wheat drought increased from 35% to 56%.

Much of Nebraska is in severe drought, with pockets of extreme drought. Moderate drought extended from southeastern Iowa through central Illinois, northern Indiana, and Ohio, with extreme drought pockets in east-central Illinois and northwestern Ohio.

Baranick cautions that despite the forecasted favorable summer weather as we head into an El Niño pattern, this doesn’t mean we won’t have some issues in parts of the Corn Belt. The most vulnerable areas are those currently impacted by drought.

“If we get into a super El Niño, it can lock in a weather pattern that doesn’t change much over extended periods, which can be good or bad,” Baranick said. “There’s still a threat that if El Niño gets too strong too quickly, or it sets up differently than we expect, we could face a longer unfavorable pattern. While we expect good weather, it’s still possible to see an extended period of trouble over the summer.”

Comparing the eastern versus western Corn Belt, Baranick said summer weather patterns favor the entire geography. Although there are more severe drought areas in the west, that doesn’t mean catastrophic results for the season. As happened last year in Nebraska drought areas, timely rains can deliver bushels despite the lack of soil moisture.

Pollination and grain fill

Right now, Baranick isn’t too worried about weather issues when putting bushels on crops. “Everything points to a very favorable weather period during pollination and grain fill. Obviously, we’ll have to see what crop conditions and rainfall patterns exist around that time, but I’m optimistic right now,” he said.

Globally, current DTN forecasts do not show major problems in most of the world’s growing regions. The two main U.S. competitors for corn and soybeans, Brazil and Argentina, have had issues throughout their growing seasons.

Many areas of Brazil have received half their normal rainfall during their wet season, which could lead to concerns about safrina corn yield. Soybeans, on the other hand, should have record yields. Argentina was dry early, but it has seen stabilizing rains heading into a harvest. Still, growers there might miss yield projections by a slight margin.

Spring weather also brings focus on controlling weeds to save every valuable bushel. Controlling tougher herbicide-resistant weeds that break through soil-applied treatments requires critical attention to good weed coverage when using glufosinate.

Weed size is critical, so target application to small 2- to 4-inch-tall species. Plan to apply 15 to 20 gallons per acre through nozzles that produce medium to coarse spray droplets. To improve herbicide movement across plant tissue layers, weed scientists recommend adding 1.5 to 3 pounds per acre of ammonium sulfate (AMS) to the spray tank.